You’re Asking the Wrong Question

When people ask, “How much should I spend on Google Ads?” they’re asking the wrong question. Spend is a system variable, not a starting point. Here's what you should do instead:

Step 1: Deconstruct the Real Job
Ask:
👉 What must be true for this ad spend to be profitable?
👉 What’s the core behavior we're trying to drive?
👉 What's the payback window they can tolerate?

Don't spend to “see what happens.” Fund a test to validate if CAC < LTV.

Step 2: Diagnose the Key Constraint
Before touching the budget:
👉 Is the offer validated?
👉 Are conversions tracked cleanly (e.g. GACT, GA4, CAPI, CRM)?
👉 Do we know our target’s intent signals (e.g., search queries, funnel stage)?

If the infrastructure is broken, more spend = more waste.

Step 3: Design a Minimum Viable Experiment (MVE)
Budget = function of:
👉 Target CAC (e.g., $100)
👉 Minimum sample size (e.g., 30 conversions for directional CAC signal)

Back solve from the data you need. Example:
👉 Want 30 conversions?
👉 Estimate 3% CVR → 1,000 clicks
👉 CPC = $2 → $2,000 test budget

Step 4: Deploy with Feedback
Rules:
👉 Launch in controlled batches (e.g., $100/day for 10 days)
👉 Tag every cohort
👉 Kill noise fast, scale only with signal

Track:
👉 CAC
👉 CVR by intent (brand vs. generic)
👉 Funnel drop-offs

Reframe: People should ask...
“What’s the minimum budget required to get a signal on CAC, not ‘results’?”

This keeps them focused on learning speed, not burn rate.